Poker Variance Explained: What It Is and How to Manage It

At CoinPoker, we know that variance is a key idea for every poker player to understand. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or just starting out, getting variance can help you handle the inevitable ups and downs of the game.

Imagine hitting a full house three hands in a row, then losing all-in with pocket aces against two-seven offsuit – that’s variance in action. It’s the thrilling roller coaster that keeps poker players coming back for me.We will explore what variance is, why it happens, and how to manage it effectively to improve your long-term success at the tables.

What is Variance in Poker?

Variance in poker is the difference between your expected results based on your skill level and your actual results in the short term. It’s the mathematical way of saying that sometimes you’ll run good, and sometimes you’ll run bad — even if you’re playing your A-game.

Simply put, variance is why you can make all the right moves and still lose, or why you might win despite playing poorly. It’s the element of chance that makes poker exciting, but also frustrating at times.

Picture this: You’re sitting pretty with pocket Aces (A♠A♥), feeling invincible. Your opponent’s rocking pocket Kings (K♠K♥), thinking the same thing. Before the flop, you’re a huge favorite — about 80% of the time, you’ll be doing the victory dance. But don’t celebrate too early! That also means 20% of the time, those mighty Aces will crumble faster than a sandcastle in a tsunami.

If you play this situation out 10 times:

• On average, you’d expect to win 8 times and lose 2 times.
• But due to variance, you might win all 10 times, or you might lose 3 or 4 times.
• In an extreme case of bad variance, you could even lose 5 or 6 times!

Variance is like that mischievous friend who sneaks ghost peppers into your burrito – you never know when it’s gonna hit, but when it does, you’ll feel the burn!

This unpredictability is variance in action. It’s what keeps weaker players in the game (because they can get lucky), but it’s also what can lead to frustrating losing streaks for skilled players.

Understanding variance is important because it helps you:

1. Stay level-headed during both winning and losing streaks
2. Make decisions based on long-term profitability rather than short-term results
3. Manage your bankroll effectively to weather the inevitable swings

Remember, in the poker universe, variance is the cosmic joker that keeps us all humble. Accepting its existence is the first step to managing it effectively and improving your overall game.

Why Does Variance Happen in Poker?

Now that we understand what variance is, let’s explore why it occurs in poker. Variance is an inherent part of the game due to several factors:

The Element of Chance

Poker is a delicate dance between skill and luck. While your decisions shape your long-term results, short-term outcomes are heavily influenced by the random shuffle of the deck. This unpredictability is the heart of variance.

Imagine you’re dealt pocket Aces – the best starting hand in poker. You’re a huge favorite against any other hand, but you’re never guaranteed to win. Sometimes, you’ll lose to a lowly 7-2 offsuit that hits two pair on the flop. That’s variance in action – the reason why even the best players can lose in the short term, and why weaker players can sometimes go on hot streaks.

Limited Information

In poker, you’re always playing detective with only half the clues. You don’t know what cards your opponents hold or what the community cards will be. This uncertainty is a major contributor to variance.

For example, you raise pre-flop with A♠K♠ and get called by the big blind. The flop comes K♥7♦2♣. You bet, thinking you have the best hand with the top pair, top kicker. Your opponent calls. The turn is the 7♠. You bet again, and your opponent raises all-in. Now what? They could have K7 for a better two pair, 77 for a set, or maybe they’re bluffing with a draw. Your decision here, based on limited information, can lead to significant variance in your results.

Multiple Decision Points

A poker hand isn’t just one decision – it’s a series of choices, each carrying its own element of variance. From pre-flop to the river, each street presents new information and new opportunities for variance to come into play.

Let’s say you raise pre-flop with QQ, get called, and see a flop of K72 rainbow. Do you c-bet, hoping your opponent missed? If you bet and get called, do you fire again on the turn? Each decision point compounds the variance, as a different choice at any stage could lead to a vastly different outcome.

Opponent Actions

Your opponents aren’t predictable robots – they’re human beings with their own strategies, tendencies, and yes, variance. Sometimes they’ll make mistakes that benefit you, and other times they might make an unexpectedly brilliant play that costs you a big pot.

This ties into tight-loose play as well. Tight players introduce less variance – they play fewer hands, so outcomes are more predictable. Loose players, on the other hand, play more hands and make more unconventional plays, increasing variance. If you’re at a table full of loose-aggressive players, expect your variance to skyrocket as pots get bigger and unpredictable plays become the norm.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Results 

While skill determines your results in the long run, luck plays a significant role in the short term. This gap between short-term results and long-term expectation is essentially what we call variance.

Let’s illustrate this with an example: Imagine you’re playing a cash game and you get all your chips in preflop with A♠K♠ against an opponent’s 7♥7♦. You’re a slight favorite, with about 57% equity (odds to win) in the hand.

If you were to play this exact scenario 100 times:

• On average, you’d expect to win 57 times and lose 43 times.
• But due to variance, in any given session, you might win this flip 3 times in a row, or lose it 3 times in a row.
• Over 100 or 1000 repetitions, your results would likely converge towards the expected 57% win rate.

This example shows why variance can be so impactful in the short term. Even when you’re a favorite, you’ll sometimes experience streaks of losses. On the flip side, you’ll sometimes win several times in a row even when you’re the underdog. That’s the beauty – and the frustration – of poker!

Understanding that variance is an unavoidable part of poker due to these factors can help you approach the game with a more balanced mindset. It’s not about eliminating variance — that’s impossible. Instead, it’s about managing it effectively and focusing on making the best decisions possible, regardless of short-term results.

How to Manage Poker Variance?

Managing variance is a crucial skill for any serious poker player. While you can’t control the cards you’re dealt or how they fall, you can control how you respond to the ups and downs of the game. Here are some effective strategies to help you manage poker variance:

Study & Improve Your Game

The better you play, the less impact variance will have on your overall results. By continuously studying and improving your game, you increase your edge over your opponents, which helps to counteract the effects of short-term variance.

• Regularly review your hand histories to identify and correct mistakes
• Stay updated with advanced poker strategies and trends
• Consider working with a coach or joining a study group
• Use training software and poker solvers to optimize your play

Remember, every small improvement in your game can significantly reduce the impact of variance over time.

Increase Your Sample Size: Play More Hands

Variance tends to even out over a large number of hands. The more you play, the closer your actual results will align with your expected results.

• Aim to play a significant volume of hands or tournaments
• Don’t make judgments about your skill level based on small sample sizes
• Remember that even 10,000 hands is considered a small sample in poker
• If possible, consider multi-tabling to increase your hand volume

However, make sure that playing more doesn’t come at the cost of making good decisions. Quality is always more important than quantity.

Practice Bankroll Management

Proper poker bankroll management is your first line of defense against variance. It ensures you have enough funds to weather downswings and continue playing.

• Have at least 20-30 buy-ins for cash games at your current stake
• For tournaments, aim for 100+ buy-ins for your average buy-in amount
• Be willing to move down in stakes if necessary during a downswing
• Never play with money you can’t afford to lose

Good bankroll management allows you to play your best game without the fear of going broke due to a bad run of cards.

Keep Your Emotions Aside

Emotional control is crucial when dealing with variance. Tilt (playing poorly due to emotional frustration) can amplify the negative effects of variance.

• Practice mindfulness techniques to stay calm during bad beats
• Take breaks when you feel yourself getting frustrated
• Focus on making good decisions rather than results
• Develop a pre-game routine to get into the right mindset
• Use positive self-talk to maintain a healthy perspective

Remember, the best poker players aren’t necessarily those who never tilt, but those who recognize tilt quickly and know how to manage it.

Take a Pause for the Cause

Sometimes, the best way to manage variance is to step away from the game temporarily. Taking breaks can help you reset mentally and prevent emotional decisions.

• Set clear stop-loss limits for your sessions and stick to them
• Take regular breaks during long sessions to maintain focus
• If you’re experiencing a prolonged downswing, consider taking a few days off
• Use your time away from the tables to study and improve your game
• Engage in other hobbies or activities to maintain a balanced lifestyle

Taking strategic pauses can help you come back to the game refreshed and ready to play your best.

Variance in Online Poker

Online poker presents unique challenges when it comes to variance. The faster pace and ability to multi-table can make its effects bigger:

1. Increased Hand Volume: Online players see many more hands per hour, leading to bigger short-term swings.
2. Multi-tabling: Playing multiple tables increases hourly rate but also makes variance bigger.
3. Lower Stakes and Looser Play: Online games, especially at lower stakes, tend to have more loose and aggressive players, increasing short-term variance.
   1. Loose players enter more pots with weaker hands, creating more unpredictable situations.
   2. Aggressive players make more raises and bluffs, leading to larger pots and wilder swings.
4. Lack of Physical Tells: Without physical tells, online play relies more on betting patterns and timing tells, potentially leading to increased variance.
5. Software and Connection Issues: Technical problems can occasionally impact results, adding another layer of variance.

To manage online poker variance:

1. Maintain a larger bankroll relative to your stakes
2. Be selective about game selection
3. Implement stop-loss limits
4. Use tracking software effectively
5. Practice tilt control
6. Focus on continual learning and adaptation

By understanding these aspects and implementing these strategies, you can better navigate the increased swings in online poker.

Variance in Live Poker

While live poker generally has lower variance compared to online play, it comes with its own set of challenges:

1. Slower Pace of Play: Fewer hands per hour means it takes longer to reach a statistically meaningful sample size.
2. Higher Stakes Relative to Bankroll: Live games often have higher minimum buy-ins. While this doesn’t change the mathematical odds, it makes each session a bigger part of your bankroll. So when variance hits – good or bad – it feels more intense!
3. More Information Available: Physical tells and table talk can both reduce and increase variance.
4. Tipping and Rake: Live games often have higher effective rake due to dealer tipping, potentially increasing variance by reducing overall win rates.
5. Limited Game Selection: Fewer options for game selection can prolong downswings.

To manage live poker variance:

1. Adjust your bankroll management for higher stakes
2. Develop strong mental game skills
3. Improve your physical tell reading
4. Optimize your game selection
5. Account for tipping in your calculations
6. Focus on maximizing your hourly rate
7. Maintain detailed records of your play

By understanding these factors and implementing these strategies, you can better navigate the challenges of live play variance.

Variance in Video Poker

Video poker, while different from traditional poker, still experiences significant variance. Here’s what you need to know:

1. Fixed Paytables: Unlike traditional poker, video poker has set paytables. This can make variance more predictable, but no less impactful.
2. Faster Play: Video poker hands are played much faster than traditional poker, leading to more pronounced short-term swings.
3. Game Selection: Different video poker variants have different levels of variance. For example, Jacks or Better typically has lower variance than Deuces Wild.
4. Optimal Strategy: Following optimal strategy can reduce variance over time, but short-term swings are still inevitable.
5. Jackpots: Many video poker games offer large jackpots for royal flushes, which can significantly impact variance.

To manage video poker variance:

• Choose games with favorable paytables
• Stick to optimal strategy
• Manage your bankroll carefully
• Be prepared for longer sessions to smooth out variance
• Understand that chasing jackpots increases variance

Remember, while video poker may seem more “controlled” than traditional poker, variance still plays a significant role in short-term results.

How to Calculate Variance in Poker?

Understanding how to calculate variance can provide valuable insights into your poker performance. While the exact calculation can be complex, here are some simplified methods:

1. Standard Deviation Method: Most poker tracking software provides this. Your results will typically fall within 2 standard deviations of your mean about 95% of the time.
2. BB/100 Method: For cash games, multiply your BB/100 by 100 and take the square root for an estimate of standard deviation in BB/100.
3. Variance Calculators: Online tools can help you calculate variance based on your results, win rate, and number of hands played.

Example: Let’s say you’re a solid player with a win rate of 5 BB/100 over 50,000 hands:

• Expected winnings: 2500 BB
• Standard deviation: ≈ 500 BB
• This means about 95% of the time, your results will fall between 1500 BB and 3500 BB.

But what does this actually mean for you, the player? Let’s break it down:

Your expected winnings of 2500 BB represent your “true” skill level over this sample. However, due to variance, your actual results will likely deviate from this number. The standard deviation tells us how much this deviation might be.

In this case, there’s a 95% chance your results will fall within two standard deviations of your expected winnings. This means that despite your solid play, you could find yourself winning as little as 1500 BB or as much as 3500 BB over these 50,000 hands – all due to the whims of variance!

Here’s the kicker: there’s still a 5% chance you could fall outside this range. You might be crushing it with 4000 BB in winnings, or you could be scratching your head wondering why you’re only up 1000 BB despite your good play.

This is why understanding variance is crucial. It helps you maintain perspective when you’re running hot or cold, and it underscores the importance of a proper bankroll to weather these swings. Remember, poker is a long game, and these numbers remind us to focus on making good decisions rather than short-term results.

Using a Poker Variance Calculator

Poker variance calculators are valuable tools that can help you understand your results in the context of expected variance. Here’s how to use one:

1. Input your win rate (usually in BB/100 for cash games or ROI for tournaments)
2. Enter the number of hands or tournaments played
3. Some calculators allow you to input your standard deviation if you know it
4. The calculator will show you a range of possible results given your inputs
5. Use these results to set realistic expectations and adjust your bankroll management

These calculators can help you understand if your current results are within the expected range or if you’re running particularly good or bad. They’re especially useful for setting appropriate bankroll targets and understanding the potential swings you might experience.

Remember, while these tools are helpful, they’re based on probabilities. Your actual results may still fall outside the calculated ranges, especially in the short term.

Conclusion

Understanding and managing variance is key for any serious poker player. Variance is an inherent part of the game, affecting both online and live play, impacting short-term results and mental game.

Remember, variance keeps poker challenging and profitable. Embrace it while continually improving your game. At CoinPoker, we provide a fair environment to test your skills. Join us today and put your variance management to the test!

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