Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers

The No. 6 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers matchup Saturday in a
clash of two of the SEC’s top teams. ESPN’s matchup predictor is giving the Tide just a 35.2%
chance of winning despite only being ranked one spot lower than the Vols in the AP Poll, so let’s
see if the statistics back what ESPN is saying.

Alabama is a team that goes as far as its offense takes it. The Tide score an average of 91.5 ppg,
leading the nation by over 4 points, while also hitting 31 field goals per game, a number that’s
good for second in the nation.

Alabama also ranked top 15 in the nation in field goal attempts per game (63.9), three point
makes per game (10.6), three-point attempts per game (30.3), free throw makes per game (18.9),
and free throw attempts per game (26.2).

The Tide are also the best rebounding team in the nation, averaging 30.3 defensive boards and
43.7 total rebounds per game, both goof for No. 1 in the country.

The problem for the Tide is their defense. They allow 80.1 ppg, 28.6 field goal makes per game,
68.3 field goal attempts per game, and 22.4 free throw attempts per game, all good for worst in
the SEC.

Alabama also ranks bottom two in the SEC in free throw makes allowed per game (15.9) and
offensive boards allowed per game (12.8).

Alabama is a completely different team on offense than it is on defense, and that has shown in its
five losses. Alabama’s five losses have come against No. 13 Purdue, Oregon, No. 21 Ole Miss,
No. 1 Auburn, and No. 15 Mizzou.

In those five losses, the Tide have allowed an average of 89.6 ppg. That number is higher than
any team in the country allows to opponents on a nightly basis.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is a team that can only go as far as its defense takes it.
The Vols score just 74.3 ppg, a number that is third lowest in the SEC. Tennessee is also bottom
three in the SEC in field goal makes per game (25.9), free throw makes per game (14), and free
throw attempts per game (18.7).

Defensively, the Vols have been dominant, allowing just 60.8 ppg, 21 field goal makes per game,
37.3% shooting from the field, 27.6% shooting from three-point range, 11.5 free throw makes
per game, 15.6 free throw attempts per game, 20.8 defensive boards per game, and 31.2 total
boards per game, all good for best in the SEC.

In Tennessee’s five losses this year, the Vols scored an average of 61.2 ppg. That number would
be good for the third worst scoring offense out of 364 college basketball teams if a team
averaged that for a full season.

The statistics tell us one thing for sure, these teams are polar opposites, but I say this is a game
where both teams have a 50/50 shot to win, not one where one team has nearly a 65% chance to
win as ESPN is saying.